A Scenario Analysis for Implementing Immunocastration as a Single Solution for Piglet Castration

Simple Summary The 2010 European Declaration aimed at abandoning surgical castration and switching to alternative methods. With an intention to facilitate the internal trade, the European Union (EU) was initially in favor of a single alternative. Immunocastration, as an active vaccine against the Gonadotropin Releasing Hormone, was proposed as a potential solution. However, its market potential is not yet well understood. This study applied the method of scenario analysis to examine whether and under what conditions immunocastration could be the general solution sought by the EU. Specifically, it developed two extreme scenarios. Both scenarios suggest that it is unlikely that immunocastration will become a single solution for all producers in the EU. Painful castration of male piglets to avoid boar taint can potentially be replaced by three more ethical alternatives: entire male production in combination with a detection method, immunocastration (an active vaccination against the gonadotrophin-releasing factor, GnRF), and castration with pain relief (anesthesia and/or analgesia). With the aim of abandoning piglet castration and facilitating internal trade, the European Union (EU) was initially in favor of a single alternative. Immunocastration was proposed as a potential solution, but it has not yet been sufficiently assessed regarding its market potential. To address this point, this paper uses scenario analysis to examine whether and under what conditions immunocastration could be the general solution sought by the EU. The study constructs two extreme scenarios: one in which all uncertain elements negatively influence the growth of immunocastration; another in which all uncertain elements have positive influences. These scenarios provide insights into the variance in possible futures for the implementation of immunocastration. The results show that it is unlikely that immunocastration will become a single solution for all producers in the EU, because it is not the optimal solution for all types of EU pork production systems (i.e., cost-efficiency oriented, quality oriented, animal-friendly oriented, import dependent). Rather than debating and looking for evidence about which single method is the best for the entire EU, EU authorities are advised to allow the co-existence of all alternatives and to develop protocols for applying them in the pork industry.