Lifetime Risk, Life Expectancy, and Years of Life Lost to Type 2 Diabetes in a Global Modelling Study of Six Countries

Lifetime risk, life expectancy and years of life lost provide a meaningful perspective on the burden of type 2 diabetes to guide public health interventions. We estimated these metrics using population datasets from six high income countries, for two time-points five years apart per country in the period 2009-2019. We included 96,718,000 person-years and 448,1incident diabetes cases in life-table models. Each life-table simulated progression of a cohort of 20-year-olds free of diabetes, followed until death or age 100. Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence and mortality rates for each single year of age in males and females. Using microsimulation, 95% uncertainty intervals around lifetime risk, life expectancy and years of life lost were produced. Lifetime risk of diabetes decreased for both sexes in all countries (Table) , most notably in Israeli females from 58.1% (57.0 - 59.1) in 2010-to 45.9% (44.7 - 47.1) in 2015-16. Life expectancy for people with diabetes increased for both sexes in all countries, generally in line with the increase seen in those without diabetes. Years of life lost to diabetes at age 20 varied from 2.4 (1.4 - 3.4) in Latvian males in 2015-16 to 8.6 (8.3 - 8.9) in Israeli males in 2015-16. These findings show declining lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes in many countries, however, years of life lost to the disease remains substantial for the average person with diabetes. Disclosure D.Tomic: None. S.Pildava: None. J.E.Shaw: Advisory Panel; Abbott Diagnostics, AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly and Company, Pfizer Inc., Roche Diagnostics, Research Support; AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Speaker's Bureau; AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly and Company, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi. D.J.Magliano: None. L.Chen: None. J.I.Morton: None. E.W.Gregg: None. M.E.Pavkov: None. M.Arffman: None. Y.J.Cheng: None. K.Ha: None. D.Kim: None.