Public Attitudes to Irish Unification: Evidence on Models and Process from a Deliberative Forum in Ireland

We designed and conducted a (virtual) deliberative forum in the Republic of Ireland (N=50) on issues relating to potential Irish unification. We found that our participants, both before and after deliberation, preferred an integrated model of Irish unity in which Northern Ireland would be dissolved (the 'integrated model') to a model of unity in which Northern Ireland persists as a devolved entity but now within a united Ireland (the 'devolved NI model'). We found that deliberation on procedural matters produces a substantial increase in support for specifying the particular model of a united Ireland on offer before any referendum. We also found that deliberation results in a very substantial decrease in support for holding an immediate referendum (within two years), and substantially increased support for a five-to-ten-year time frame. Overall, our findings suggest that public attitudes to models of Irish unity do not change upon learning and deliberation (with robust public preference for the integrated model), implying that if an Irish government's preferred Irish unity model is not in line with Irish public opinion it faces a challenge in shaping the public's views; however, attitudes to process do change as a result of deliberation (in the direction of favouring pre-referendum specification and a non-immediate referendum), implying that the more the public think about these issues, the more likely they are to favour the government providing clarity on the choice before any medium-term referendum.