The direct and habitat-mediated influence of climate on the biogeography of boreal caribou in Canada

•We estimated and compared the influence of climate and habitat on caribou range occurrence across Canadian boreal forest.•Caribou range occurrence is more sensitive to the direct effects of habitat and human disturbance than climate.•Climate exerts indirect influence over caribou range occurrence through its relationship to caribou habitat.•Our approach informs large-scale caribou conservation efforts under changing climatic conditions.