Treatment Response Prediction for Major Depressive Disorder Patients via Multivariate Pattern Analysis of Thalamic Features

Antidepressant treatment, as an important method in clinical practice, is not suitable for all major depressive disorder (MDD) patients. Although magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies have found thalamic abnormalities in MDD patients, it is not clear whether the features of the thalamus are suitable to serve as predictive aids for treatment responses at the individual level. Here, we tested the predictive value of gray matter density (GMD), gray matter volume (GMV), amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (ALFF), and fractional ALFF (fALFF) of the thalamus using multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA). A total of 74 MDD patients and 44 healthy control (HC) subjects were recruited. Thirty-nine MDD patients and 35 HC subjects underwent scanning twice. Between the two scanning sessions, patients in the MDD group received selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) treatment for 3-month, and HC group did not receive any treatment. Gaussian process regression (GPR) was trained to predict the percentage decrease in the Hamilton Depression Scale (HAMD) score after treatment. The percentage decrease in HAMD score after SSRI treatment was predicted by building GPRs trained with baseline thalamic data. The results showed significant correlations between the true percentage of HAMD score decreases and predictions (p < 0.01, r(2) = 0.11) in GPRs trained with GMD. We did not find significant correlations between the true percentage of HAMD score decreases and predictions in GMV (p = 0.16, r(2) = 0.00), ALFF (p = 0.125, r(2) = 0.00), and fALFF (p = 0.485, r(2) = 0.10). Our results suggest that GMD of the thalamus has good potential as an aid in individualized treatment response predictions of MDD patients.