Estimation of Parameter Probability Distributions for Lithium-Ion Battery String Models Using Bayesian Methods

Abstract This paper addresses the parameter estimation problem for lithium-ion battery pack models comprising cells in series. This valuable information can be exploited in fault diagnostics to estimate the number of cells that are exhibiting abnormal behaviour, e.g. large resistances or small capacities. In particular, we use a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of a two-cell arrangement modelled using equivalent circuits. Although our modeling framework has been extensively reported in the literature, its structural identifiability properties have not been reported yet to the best of the authors’ knowledge. Moreover, most contributions in the literature tackle the estimation problem through point-wise estimates assuming Gaussian noise using e.g. least-squares methods (maximum likelihood estimation) or Kalman filters (maximum a posteriori estimation). In contrast, we apply methods that are suitable for nonlinear and non-Gaussian estimation problems and estimate the full posterior probability distribution of the parameters. We study how the model structure, available measurements and prior knowledge of the model parameters impact the underlying posterior probability distribution that is recovered for the parameters. For two cells in series, a bimodal distribution is obtained whose modes are centered around the real values of the parameters for each cell. Therefore, bounds on the model parameters for a battery pack can be derived.