Methods of short-term forecasting of ice thickness growth in the north-eastern part of the caspian sea

The Caspian Sea is a southern sea with annual ice cover in the northern part. The thickness of the ice can reach one meter or more, depending on the severity of the winter. The sea ice of the Caspian Sea is characterized by significant variability, which affects human activities (industrial, fishing ones) as well as the fauna of the region. Based on daily information of North Caspian stations for the last 10 years, there has been developed short-term forecasting methodology for predicting daily increase in ice thickness. The effectiveness of the method was evaluated on the basis of calculation-dependent and independent materials of different lead times. The daily forecast of ice thickness growth was 82 to 98% justified. Climate research allowed us to establish that the maximum ice thickness has decreased stepwise since the late 1980s by 20–25 cm. This is due to the lower sum of negative temperatures, which in turn is associated with an increase in the number of days with a W form of atmospheric circulation and a decrease in the number of days with an E form in the winter period.