A methodological approach for strategic evaluation - a response to water scarcity emergency

Abstract The goal of the Paris Agreement to limit the increase of temperature may become an illusion. Within 20 to 30 years, Southern Europe may experience hot waves and broad dry periods. Water scarcity may turn into reality, and the Defense structures of each country must prepare for it. The Scenario has high uncertainty as well as what the response to the hazards might be. The Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) allows to handle uncertainty, and the Axiomatic Design (AD) is a tool to do good designs. This paper presents a methodological approach to handle with forthcoming events. It defines what is a scenario using the structured AD frame, defined by constraints and needs. In addition, it presents an approach to compute information for different developments of the design. Thus, it describes a Defense strategy to "provide the basic water needs to the population". The DST method is used to achieve belief and plausibility measures of the probability of success. Currently, the belief in the success of a response to hazards is almost zero. Plausibility can go up to 0.65 by defining a reaction structure, improving the technology, manufacturing new products.