Linkage mechanism of public transport subsidy: considering passenger ridership, cost, fare and service quality

Under the long-term implementation of the low fare policy for public transport in China, the phenomenon of unsustainable subsidies is increasingly obvious. We take into account three related stakeholders including the public, operators and government, and comprehensively consider various factors affecting public transport subsidies, and establish a linkage mechanism of the subsidy based on passenger ridership, cost, fare and service quality. We propose a combination forecasting model (CFM) composed of quadratic exponential smoothing model (QESM) and Grey theory model (GM) to forecast passenger ridership. The results show that the CFM improves the forecast accuracy of passenger ridership, the factors considered in the linkage mechanism are more comprehensive, and the results are reasonable. By using this linkage mechanism, the government or operators can establish long-term or mid-term development plans to provide a systematic and theoretical reference, which is conducive to the healthy and stable development of public transport.