The power of the GP-ARX model in CO2 emission forecasting

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the primary cause of global warming and climate change. Iran is the seventh-largest carbon emitter in the world and it is vital to pay attention to controlling CO2 emission in Iran. The prediction is the first and critical key to control air pollution. The main aim of this study is to investigate the power of the GP-ARX model in forecasting CO2 emission in the Iranian economy during 1961–2018, implementing new diagnostic diagrams. The results showed that among other examined models, the GP-ARX model with CC=0.999, Root Mean Squared Error = 0.009, the highest residuals between −5 and 5 (100%), and the lowest distance from the observation points (0.045), estimated CO2 emission values more precisely. So, it is recommended that policymakers and institutes who are worried about CO2 emission hazards utilized the GP-ARX model to predict CO2 emission values to take the accurate decisions for reducing its concentration.