Evaluation of Train Delay from the Viewpoints of Affected Passengers

In recent years, train delay on a daily basis has become a major concern in Japan. Although there are many existing studies that have analyzed train delay, most of them are based on the extent of train delay. These studies do not explicitly describe the influence of train delay on passengers. Furthermore, the studies that evaluate the influence of train delay on passengers only estimate the overall influence in the target line caused by an accident, and the results obtained are insufficient for evaluating countermeasures to improve punctuality. In this study, we developed a new method of evaluating train delay to understand its influence on both other trains and passengers. This method quantitatively analyzes the impact of a single delay, by estimating its range of propagation and the number of affected passengers who are estimated to reach their destinations behind schedule. We applied the new method to the commuter rail line and found that train delay around a large station has a relatively large influence on passengers. We confirmed that the proposed method can reflect the total volume of affected passengers, and extract sets of trains and stations, for which countermeasures should be taken to improve punctuality.