Spatial feasibility of large-scale farming for sustainable agriculture in China

Abstract China’s agricultural sector is dominated by smallholder farms, which exhibit relatively low nutrient use efficiency, low agricultural income and substantial non-point source pollution. Here, by integrating data from over 40,000 rural surveys, ecological modelling, and geostatistical analysis, we found that 86% of Chinese croplands could be consolidated to establish a large-scale farming regime with an average field size greater than 16 hectares. This would result in a 42% reduction of total nitrogen input, an 18% increase of nitrogen use efficiency, and a 55% reduction in labor requirement, while doubling labor income. Despite requiring a one-time investment of approximate 370 billion US dollars for land consolidation, agricultural profits overall would double due to agricultural production costs being halved. It is spatially feasible and cost-effective to consolidate small land patches for transformation of smallholder to large-scale farming that makes a substantial contribution to attaining sustainable agricultural development in China.