Transfer, Innovation and Agriculture: The case of the diffusion of almond cultivation in southern Spain

The almond tree has become one of the most interesting options for investors in the primary sector. The importance of making a projection in a certain time horizon of the evolution of the cultivated area is based on micro-and macroeconomic reasons. The objective of this work is to analyse the process of diffusion of the crop in order to make forecasts about the evolution of the cultivated area, which can help in the decision-making process of farmers. To achieve this goal, four models are developed. The first two are based on the models proposed by Giovanis and Skiadas (1999) and Bass (2004). Models three and four pursue the construction of a pattern of influence of the exogenous factors of the crop (price). The formulation developed by Jarvis (1981) is proposed. The results regarding the first group of models indicate that the diffusion process conforms to a sigmoidal logistic curve, with an initial phase of small growth rate, an intermediate phase of rapid growth and a final phase or saturation, with a virtually non-existent growth. The results regarding models three and four show that the curve is, as in the first case, sigmoidal and that the price levels of the fruit have a decisive influence on the diffusion process. The higher the price of the fruit, the level of saturation of the system increases and the duration of the diffusion process is also prolonged.