Understanding the Intensity of Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes in the Context of Postcolonial and Socialist Transformation in Kaesong, North Korea

This study examines the land-use and land-cover changes (LUCCs) in Kaesong, a North Korean city, and the area adjacent to the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). An intensity analysis-a framework decomposing LUCCs into interval, category, and transition levels-is applied to the land-cover maps of 1916,1951, and 2015 to understand the importance of the historical period and associated land regimes (imperialism and socialism) in shaping LUCCs. The five land-cover classes-Built, Agriculture, Forest, Water, and Others-were analyzed among the two historical periods from Imperial Japan's colonization (1910-1945) and the South-North division since the Korean War (1953-present). The results show that, at the interval level, the colonial period LUCCs were more intensive than the division period. However, >50% of the study area underwent changes during each period. At the category level, river channel modifications were the most intensive, followed by deforestation. In terms of transition, consistent intensity trends from Others to Built and Agriculture were observed across both land regimes. In conclusion, the LUCCs were more intensive under Japanese imperialism than the North Korean socialist regime, but the economic and geographic factors were not substantially affected by such land regimes. These underlying forces may be more significant fundamental drivers of LUCCs than land regimes themselves.