The growth potential of the Parti Quebecois: The flip side of the vote

This research note has two objectives. First, we present the Relative Confidence Index (RCI), a new measure of potential for growth and of solidity of the vote based on voters' expressed likelihood to vote for the parties in their constituency. We look in detail at the benefits of the RCI and show that it can be used to assess the potential for growth and the solidity of the vote for political parties at the constituency and provincial levels. Second, we apply this index to the case of the Parti Quebecois, using large samples collected during the 2012, 2014, and 2018 Quebec election campaigns. This allows us to illustrate and draw conclusions about the potential for growth of the Parti Quebecois.