Unsupervised machine-learning algorithms for the identification of clinical phenotypes in the osteoarthritis initiative database

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a complex disease comprising diverse underlying patho-mechanisms. To enable the development of effective therapies, segmentation of the heterogenous patient population is critical. This study aimed at identifying such patient clusters using two different machine learning algorithms.Using the progression and incident cohorts of the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) dataset, deep embedded clustering (DEC) and multiple factor analysis with clustering (MFAC) approaches, including 157 input-variables at baseline, were employed to differentiate specific patient profiles.DEC resulted in 5 and MFAC in 3 distinct patient phenotypes. Both identified a "comorbid" cluster with higher body mass index (BMI), relevant burden of comorbidity and low levels of physical activity. Both methods also identified a younger and physically more active cluster and an elderly cluster with functional limitations, but low disease impact. The additional two clusters identified with DEC were subgroups of the young/physically active and the elderly/physically inactive clusters. Overall pain trajectories over 9 years were stable, only the numeric rating scale (NRS) for pain showed distinct increase, while physical activity decreased in all clusters. Clusters showed different (though non-significant) trajectories of joint space changes over the follow-up period of 8 years.Two different clustering approaches yielded similar patient allocations primarily separating complex "comorbid" patients from healthier subjects, the latter divided in young/physically active vs elderly/physically inactive subjects. The observed association to clinical (pain/physical activity) and structural progression could be helpful for early trial design as strategy to enrich for patients who may specifically benefit from disease-modifying treatments.