A new model for China’s CO2 emission pathway using the top-down and bottom-up approaches

Detailed research on China's CO2 emission pathway of the 2030 peak and 2060 carbon neutrality goals is fundamental to promote China's climate change action. Previous studies on emission pathways have been based on long-term emission data or model analyses. However, few studies have achieved synergy and pathway optimization at both the micro and macro levels or focused on China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal, making it difficult to support the systematic management of national and regional emission pathways. In this study, we developed an integrated CO2 emission pathway model, the Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning Carbon Pathways 1.2 model, under China's climate change goals. Our pathway coupled the top-down and bottom-up approaches and conducted optimization analysis under social fairness and optimal cost conditions. The results provide a clear CO2 emission pathway and offer insights for implementing line management of CO2 emissions at the national, regional, sectoral, and spatial gridded levels.