Simulating wind-driven extreme sea levels: Sensitivity to wind speed and direction

Extreme sea levels and coastal flooding can cause devastating socio-economic damages and even loss of lives. Robust and timely risk mitigation requires knowledge of recurrence frequencies, but such estimates are riddled with uncertainties, especially regarding high-impact, low-probability events. In the North Sea–Baltic Sea region, considerable inter- and intra-decadal variability mean that the risks of present-day, wind-driven extreme sea levels are not fully determined. This knowledge gap is becoming more urgent for decision-makers and stakeholders since mitigation of the impacts of current and future flooding hazards, e.g. by coastal adaptation schemes, ideally requires detailed knowledge on the current and future storm-surge regime.