Forest fire action on vegetation from the perspective of trend analysis in future climate change scenarios for a Brazilian savanna region

The Cerrado region has adapted to fires because of its climate and vegetation conditions, but with increasing frequency, regional fires will begin to degrade the biome. Therefore, research is necessary to determine whether the occurrence of fires is beneficial or degrading to the environment, and if the fire origin is natural or anthropic. The objective of this study was to evaluate the vulnerability of vegetation to different scenarios of future climate change. The study area was the Ecological Station of Urucui-Una, located in the south of Piaui. The methodology consisted in identifying burnt areas in terms of their recurrence; evaluating the correlation between burnt areas and precipitation and temperature; analyzing burnt areas and the Mann Kendall trend for vegetation for the period 2001 to 2018. Based on the current vegetation conditions, the vegetation and land use were estimated for the year 2100 through the Markov chain and the vulnerable areas were estimated observing different scenarios of climate change of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Fase 6 (CMIP6). The results indicated that fires with frequencies above 5 in the interval of 18 years have a negative Pearson correlation and the Mann-Kendall analysis, which implies a state of vegetation degradation. Regarding the future climate scenarios, savanna sites with temperatures above 38 degrees C, a vegetation index below 0.4, and monthly precipitation less than 90 mm were those with the highest level of vulnerability. Vulnerability mapping can help to improve public policies for fire management for the sustainable development of this region.