Life-Cycle Oriented Risk Assessment Using a Monte Carlo Simulation

Featured Application Product lifetime-oriented risk minimization in the procurement of standard part for a manufacturing and assembly line for roller conveyors. State of the art mechatronic systems are complex assemblies of various parts and sub-systems. In such an interconnected system, even relatively cheap parts can have a major impact on the overall performance due to unexpected failure. Hence, lifecycle management has major implications on the successful modification of existing products. Potential savings due to changes in production and procurement must be compared to the implied risk of products failing in the field due to these changes. This work documents a generic approach for risk assessment based on the distribution of the expected savings and incident costs over the whole lifecycle. To do so, a stochastic model is introduced to quantify the expected savings and costs given a non-risk-free product modification. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, the effects of uncertainty are incorporated into the risk management. The model and simulation are deployed within an industrial use case. The application demonstrates both the appropriateness of the tool and its useability.