Analyzing Tehran's Air Pollution Using System Dynamics Approach

Air pollution is one of the major issues in urban management. City managers and planners pay a great deal of attention to this problem given its harmful effect on people's health and the environment. This paper proposes a simulated model of the pollution level of the capital city of Tehran along with its source and outcomes based on system dynamics. First, it provides a comprehensive review of the sources of greenhouse emission along with the impact of natural factors on its growth. The data is collected from 2011 to 2021. Then a dynamic model is applied to simulate Tehran's air pollution for twenty years (from 2011 to 2031). The statistical method of design of experiments (DoE) is considered to set the sensitive and controllable variables of the city's pollution. The information is used to set plans to reduce the air pollution considering several scenarios. The results of the research show that the best strategy to reduce air pollution that can resolve other issues as well is to manufacture environmentally friendly cars that can rely on renewable energy resources as their fuels. The other highly important strategy is to preserve forests.