Directly pricing VIX futures: the role of dynamic volatility and jump intensity

We extend the direct pricing framework and propose a new generalized model for VIX futures by adding the time-varying component volatility as well as jump intensity to the logarithm of underlying VIX series. We also switch to the normal jump component on which the simpler and faster analytical filter can be applied. Compared with the nested benchmark models, these extensions are supported by significant pricing performance improvements both in- and out-of-sample. In particular, our generalized model can reduce the pricing errors substantially in the high VIX level period and for long maturity contracts. Our research highlights the importance of those newly added features of the VIX series when pricing VIX derivatives.