Validation of a full-plasma integrated modeling approach on ASDEX Upgrade

In this work we present the extensive validation of a refined version of the integrated model based on engineering parameters (IMEP) introduced in reference (Luda et al 2020 Nucl. Fusion 60 036023). The modeling workflow is now fully automated, computationally faster thanks to the reduced radial resolution of the TGLF calculation, and it includes the modeling of the toroidal rotation, which was still taken from experimental measurements in our previous work. The updated model maintains the same accuracy as its previous version when tested on the cases presented in the initial publication. The confined plasma, from the magnetic axis to the separatrix, is simulated without using any experimental information from profiles measurements, and the inputs of IMEP are the same engineering parameters used when programming a plasma discharge. The model validation database consists of 50 ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) stationary (over a few energy confinement time) H-mode phases, which largely cover the entire AUG operational domain. The prediction of IMEP is compared with experimental measurements and with scaling laws, such as the IPB98(y,2), the ITPA20-IL, and AUG specific regressions. This modeling framework has proven to be very accurate over the entire set of 50 cases, with a significantly lower mean relative error with respect to each of the scaling laws considered, accurately reproducing the change in pedestal and core confinement caused by a change in plasma current, heating power, fueling rate, triangularity, magnetic field, NBI voltage (i.e. the effect of a change in the core particle source), and heating mix (e.g. correctly predicting the effect on confinement caused by a change in T (e)/T (i)). Plasma confinement is correctly described by IMEP also for two particular operating regimes, such as the ITER baseline scenario, and the QCE regime (quasi continuous exhaust, also referred as type-II and small ELMs). This work clearly demonstrates the power of this approach in pulling out physics mechanisms to interpret subtle interdependencies and that a 1D integrated model can reproduce experimental results over very large parameter variations with a higher accuracy than any statistical regression. This approach has therefore the potential to improve the prediction of the fusion performance in future tokamak reactors.