Economic Model as a Decision-Making Tool for Biodiesel Production from Microalgae

Microalgae are fast-growing single-celled organisms and have been widely studied for biodiesel production. Cultivation does not require agricultural land and can be done using wastewater. After bibliographic review, it was observed that most of the economic studies on the production of microalgal biodiesel use deterministic traditional accounting and estimates large-scale production, with biorefinery processes, requiring high investments and considerable time for operation. This study conducted a probabilistic analysis for a small-scale biodiesel production scenario, applying Monte Carlo simulation techniques. At the same time, an economic model was proposed as a decision-making tool based on the detailed construction of Capex and Opex, costing each stage of the production process and multi-scenario economic simulation. To reinforce the analysis, NPV and IRR investment techniques were used, and sensitivity analysis, identifying the variables with the greatest impact on biodiesel production and, consequently, cash flow. The study demonstrated that the production of small-scale biodiesel is financially unfeasible under conditions in 2019 and that the largest economic offender in this type of project is Capex. However, the work expands the discussion on the results of simulations, addressing economic aspects still little discussed in studies on the subject, such as the financial impact of biodiesel corrections in the national quality standard (RANP 45), carbon credits and incentive and subsidy policies to facilitate the feasibility of low environmental