Modeling the Seismicity of the Altai–Sayan–Baikal Region

Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the block structure and the resulting seismicity of the Altai–Sayan–Baikal region has been carried out. The earthquake epicenters obtained in the model are located in the vicinities of all earthquakes with M ≥ 6.0 and most earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 that have occurred in the region. The Gutenberg–Richter plots for the model and real seismicity have similar slopes. The seismicity obtained in the model gives grounds to argue for the reliability of the previously recognized locations where strong earthquakes are most likely to occur in the region considered. The model of seismicity can be used to assess the regional seismic hazard.