ECONOMICALLY-MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF ACTIVITY EFFICIENCY FORECAST EVALUATION OF THE INTEGRATED STATE CIVIL PROTECTION SYSTEM

Based on economically-mathematical modeling, activity efficiency evaluation of the integrated state civil protection system under emergencies was carried out, using forecast methodology which is a pressing problem. The method of expert estimations for forecasting the specified system's activity efficiency is offered. Stages of research have been developed, which include selection of experts, organization of their work, processing of results, determination of numerical values of generalized indicators for system's activity efficiency as well as criteria of its research. The method of ranking indicators is used to determine the coefficient of their relative importance in terms of evaluation for the specified system's activity efficiency. Integrated indicators for activity efficiency evaluation of the integrated state civil protection system in current and forecasted conditions are determined. The criterion of this system's research is elaborated, which is a condition (necessary circumstance) when the relation between integral indicators of a current system's condition evaluation to the forecasted one makes a number less than unity. The calculations of the average value of the system's efficiency indicators in the described conditions were performed, the numerical values of the integrated evaluation indicators as well as the attainment of the research criterion were obtained. The calculation sum was developed, due to which the results of activity efficiency evaluation of the integrated state civil protection system in current and forecasted conditions are obtained, as well as numerical values of mentioned indicators. The linguistic parameters of the system's activity efficiency evaluation in current and forecasted conditions, the numerical value of the specified system's activity efficiency increasing are determined. It is proved that the obtained results are suitable for implementation in practice, which ultimately allows to achieve the forecasted indicator of improving the system's activity efficiency by an average of 34%.