Deriving Current Cost Requirements from Future Targets: Case Studies for Emerging Offshore Renewable Energy Technologies

This work investigates potential cost reduction trajectories of three emerging offshore renewable energy technologies (floating offshore wind, tidal stream, and wave) with respect to meeting ambitious cost targets set out in the Strategic Energy Technology Implementation Plans (SET-Plans) for Offshore Wind and Ocean Energy. A methodology is presented which calculates target costs for current early-stage devices, starting from the 2030 SET-Plan levelised cost targets. Component-based experience curves have been applied as part of the methodology, characterised through the comparative maturity level of each technology-specific cost centre. The resultant early-stage target costs are then compared with actual costs for current devices to highlight where further cost reduction is still required. It has been found that innovation and development requirements to reach these targets vary greatly between different technologies, based on their current level of technological maturity. Future funding calls and programmes should be designed with these variables in mind to support innovative developments in offshore renewables. The method presented in this paper has been applied to publicly available cost data for emerging renewable technologies and is fully adaptable to calculate the innovation requirements for specific early-stage renewable energy devices.