Tomicus species (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) as Invasive Forest Pest to Mexico with Ecological Niche Modeling

Scolitine bark beetles of the genus Tomicus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) include some forestry pests of major importance worldwide, with the capacity for invading new habitats and threatening native forest populations and are considered as exotic species for America. However, Tomicus piniperda L. the common pine shoot beetle has invaded North America recently and specimens of T. minor Hart have been intercepted in the United States. The possibility for an invasion of Mexico grows day by day. A preventive strategy to evaluate the invasion by exotic species is ecological niche modeling. Using bioclimatic variables, distributional data, entropy algorithm, and modeling software, the ecological niche of three Tomicus species was calculated and projected to Mexico. Results of this analysis showed potential environmental suitability in Mexico for T. destruens (small and dispersed areas in the Altiplano Norte biogeographic province and an isolated area in the Tamaulipeca biogeographic province) and T. minor (high suitability in the biogeographical provinces of Baja California, California, Sonorense, Altiplano Norte and Altiplano Sur, Tamaulipeca and small areas in eastern Eje Volcanico.). For T. piniperda, no environmental suitability was projected in Mexico. Additional ecological requirements, host preferences, and local fauna competition, as factors influencing the potential invasion of T. minor in Mexico, are discussed. Our work has an important impact because Mexico is one of the most important countries with high pine diversity in the world and shows an important impact on pine's hot spots.