High-temperature stress will put the thermo-sensitive teleost yellow catfish (Tachysurus fulvidraco) in danger through reducing reproductivity

Recently, concerns for species that sex differentiation is influenced by temperature in the context of global warming have increased because disrupted operational sex ratios could threaten population maintenance. In contrast, little attention has been given to the reproductive ability of populations that experienced elevated temperatures. In this study, we demonstrated that high temperature (HT) would decrease population size via three different aspects of reproductive ability for the first time. We show that, in a thermo-sensitive teleost yellow catfish, a short period of HT (+3 °C) exposure during the critical period of sex differentiation leads to a different percentage of masculinization of XX genotypic females (1–23%) in wet-lab and natural water bodies. Combining the results of gonadal appearance, histology, sperm parameters, and fertilization rate, we found that XX pseudo-males induced by HT display significantly discounted fertility and reproductive performance compared to XY normal males. We demonstrate that the survival of the XY genotype is lower than XX genotype under environmental stress, including HT, hypoxia, and parasite infection, and the differential survival seems unrelated to male-biased sexual size dimorphism. The mathematical model predicts that the phenotypic female percent will be stabilized at 50% and the population will be sustainably maintained when masculinizing force is less than 0.5, while HT will put the population in danger when the masculinizing force exceeds 0.5. However, when we combine the real-world data of reproductive ability and mathematic model, our results suggest the population size decreases and the long-term survival of the studied species are threatened under the projected pace of increasing temperature. These findings will be useful for understanding the long-term effects of increasing temperature on sex ratio, reproduction and population maintenance in teleost.