Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study

Objective: Mumps is a seasonal infectious disease, always occurring in winter and spring. In this study, we aim to analyze its epidemiological characteristics, transmissibility, and its correlation with meteorological variables. Method: A seasonal Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered model and a next-generation matrix method were applied to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number (R-t). Results: The seasonal double peak of annual incidence was mainly in May to July and November to December. There was high transmission at the median of R-t = 1.091 (ranged: 0 to 4.393). R-t was seasonally distributed mainly from February to April and from September to November. Correlations were found between temperature (Pearson correlation coefficient [r] ranged: from 0.101 to 0.115), average relative humidity (r = 0.070), average local pressure (r = -0.066), and the number of new cases. In addition, average local pressure (r = 0.188), average wind speed (r = 0.111), air temperature (r ranged: -0.128 to -0.150), average relative humidity (r = -0.203) and sunshine duration (r = -0.075) were all correlated with R-t. Conclusion: A relatively high level of transmissibility has been found in Xiamen City, leading to a continuous epidemic of mumps. Meteorological factors, especially air temperature and relative humidity, may be more closely associated with mumps than other factors. (C) 2022 The Authors. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd.