Probabilistic Approach to Water Pipe Leakage Prediction

a good water supply system should implement a leakage prediction method. A probabilistic method of leakage prediction was used. Much of the time, pipe leakage is a result of either water pressure, the diameter of the pipe, pipe wall thickness, pipe length or the ratio of chlorination concentration. Using the probabilistic method, the likelihood of occurrence of leakage was acquired using the probability density function of pressure, pipe wall thickness, the diameter of the pipe, length of pipe and ratio of chlorine concentration, averaged with a regression equation. Two leakages that would be caused by the diameter of the pipe were predicted to occur per 1000 ft of the pipe after one hundred years of pipe usage. Three leakages that would be a result of the pipe wall thickness were predicted to occur per 1000 ft of the pipe after one hundred years of pipe usage.