Impact of climate change and air quality on hospitalizations for respiratory diseases in municipalities in the Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo (MRSP), Brazil

The scope of this study was to analyze the possible impacts of climate change on respiratory health in the municipalities of Santo Andre and Sao Caetano do Sul. Historical meteorological data (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure), air quality data (concentrations of PM10 and O-3) and respiratory health data (incidence rates of hospitalizations for respiratory diseases - IRHRD) were related through statistical models of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). Meteorological data from future climate projections (2019-2099) from three different climate models (one global and two regionalized) in two emission scenarios were applied to the MLR models. The results showed that the IRHRD will suffer an increase of up to 10% in relation to the current levels for Sao Caetano do Sul in the 2070-2099 period. In Santo Andre, projections indicated a reduction of up to 26% in IRHRD. The most important variable in the MLR models for Santo Andre was temperature (-2,15x), indicating an inverse relationship between global warming and an increase in IRHRD, while in Sao Caetano the atmospheric pressure had the greatest weight (2.44x). For future studies, the inclusion of future projections of PM10 concentrations is recommended.