Understanding the market drivers behind the reduced demand for ivory products in Japan

1.Reducing demand for wildlife products has been recognised as an important global priority, especially with fears that there are expanding markets for certain taxa. However, consumer demand is a complicated phenomenon and as with many conservation issues, it can involve numerous interacting biological, social, political and socio-economic factors, operating at a range of scales and time periods (Margoluis et al., 2009; Knight et al., 2019). 2.The demand for elephant ivory is an excellent illustration of the gaps in our current knowledge. Although it is well-documented that Japan is no longer a significant destination consumer market for ivory products, as it was in the 1980’s, we have limited insights into how consumer behaviour and attitudes influenced ivory sales. This is partly because post-hoc evaluations of such complex systems are difficult when relying on traditional quantitative methods. We used General Elimination Methodology and semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders to provide a richer understanding of consumer behavioural change in Japan. 3.We identified the two biggest market drivers, the CITES international trade ban and economic recession, as well as a range of minor drivers and enabling conditions. These included respect for government authority, the passive nature of demand for ivory, and a general cultural shift away from conspicuous consumption. We also ruled out purported influences that are unlikely to have had an impact, such as pressure from eminent people. 4.This case study highlights the potentially important role of theory-based qualitative evaluations in conservation. Adopting this new approach will help us move away from debates about whether a single intervention caused a particular outcome, instead recognising that there are likely to be multiple contributing factors driven by interactions between different actors. In doing so, we can challenge current simplistic narratives and gain a more nuanced understanding of conservation interventions.