Mathematical formalization of transport safety assessment

Integrated transport systems are a perfect form of transportation organization, because they allow integrated use of competing modes of transport, providing a high level of transportation service at affordable prices and savings in transportation costs. The development of a methodology for assessing the risks of traffic safety violations, adapted for all types of transport in multimodal transport, is substantiated. In this paper the methods of transport safety assessment of the integrated system on the example of multimodal transportations are investigated. According to those methods, the parameters that may affect the security status of the system should be identified, then numerical indicators and dependencies between the parameters should be assessed. The analysis of mathematical models of vulnerability and risk is carried out. Vulnerability models are based on qualimetric assessment models and use the analogy of "quality" and "vulnerability". In the risk model, the term "transport safety" is considered through the term "aviation safety", i.e., through the concept of the risk of emergencies (terrorist act, system failure, accident), in accordance with the recommendations of international standards.