Technology (Ab)use and Corruption in Customs

This paper presents a new methodology to detect collusion in customs and applies it to Madagascar’s main port. Manipulation of assignment of import declarations to inspectors is identified by detecting deviations from random assignment prescribed by official rules. Deviant declarations are more at risk of tax evasion, yet less likely to be deemed fraudulent by inspectors, who also clear them faster. An intervention in which inspector assignment was delegated to a third party validates our approach, but also triggered a novel manifestation of manipulation that perpetuated systemic corruption. Tax revenues for deviant declarations would have been 27% higher had their assignment not been tampered with.