Forest governance and development effects on tropical charcoal production and deforestation

Severe loss and degradation of tropical forests affects ecosystem services and livelihoods. Charcoal, an important energy and income source for millions of people, causes 7% of tropical deforestation and forest degradation. Forest governance aims to manage forest-related issues. On the one hand, development allows for financial investments in forest governance, e.g., in monitoring and enforcement, with the aim to control deforestation. On the other hand, deforestation often continues with increased human wellbeing. Here, we aim to (a) globally examine the effects of forest governance on charcoal production and deforestation, and (b) understand its association with development. We developed a typology of tropical forest governance systems based on a literature review of 54 USAID Country Profiles and combine it with global data on charcoal production, deforestation, governance quality and development. Our results suggest that countries' development statuses affect charcoal production rather than governance quality; we observe a negative relationship between development status and charcoal production per capita (HDI: F ((1,50)) =4.85, p = 0.032; GNI: F ((1,50)) = 4.64, p = 0.036). The limited influence of governance quality and rights on charcoal production per capita and deforestation suggests mismatches between formal and informal governance and exposes challenges in top-down percolation of governance goals. Our results highlight the potential importance of tenure rights and potential opportunities for regional governing bodies to bridge local formal and informal actors to improve forest governance. Positive effects of regional tenure are driven by mixed effects of high development and governance quality related to decentralization in Asia and South America, highlighting transitions from charcoal as a livelihood energy source to a global commodity. Variability in results for FAO and UN charcoal production data advocates for better monitoring programs. However, for the first time, we explore global interactive patterns in charcoal production, development and governance-a starting point to differentiate good governance.