SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Tests Predict Infectivity Based on Viral Culture: Comparison of Antigen, PCR Viral Load, and Viral Culture Testing on a Large Sample Cohort

The relationship of SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing results, viral load, and viral culture detection remains to be fully defined. Presumptively, viral culture can provide a surrogate measure for infectivity of sampled individuals, and thereby inform how and where to most appropriately deploy available diagnostic testing modalities. We therefore determined the relationship of antigen testing results from three lateral flow and one microfluidics assay to viral culture performed in parallel in 181 nasopharyngeal swab samples positive for SARS-CoV-2. Sample viral loads, determined by RT-qPCR, were distributed across the range of viral load values observed in our testing population. We found that antigen tests were predictive of viral culture positivity, with the LumiraDx method showing enhanced sensitivity (90%; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 83-94%) compared with the BD Veritor (74%, 95% CI 65-81%), CareStart (74%, 95% CI 65-81%) and Oscar Corona (74%, 95% CI 65-82%) lateral flow antigen tests. Antigen and viral culture positivity were also highly correlated with sample viral load, with areas under the receiver?operator characteristic curves (ROCs) of 0.94-0.97 and 0.92, respectively. In particular, a viral load threshold of 100,000 copies/mL was 95% sensitive (95% CI, 90-98%) and 72% specific (95% CI, 60-81%) for predicting viral culture positivity. Taken together, the detection of SARS-CoV-2 antigen identified highly infectious individuals, some of whom may harbor 10,000-fold more virus in their samples than those with any detectable infectious virus. As such, our data support use of antigen testing in defining infectivity status at the time of sampling.