New Insight Into The Spatial Autoregressive Model of Industrial Wastewater Discharge In The Yellow River Basin

This article has carried out a statistical analysis of the industrial wastewater discharge (IWD) and gross regional product (GRP) of 79 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2003 to 2019. By calculating the Moran index of IWD and GRP, the study has found that a certain spatial autoregressive in space. There is an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) between the environmental pollution and economic development of cities in the Yellow River Basin, and a spatial autoregressive is modelled by a set of random effects that are assigned a conditional autoregressive prior distribution. In the Bayesian environment, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for inferencing, and the spatial weight matrix is ​​selected to be U-shaped matrix, and the error of the model is minimized. The parameter posterior distribution results of the model showed that the GRP did not show a significant decline. The modified EKC showed that the discharge of industrial wastewater in the entire Yellow River Basin will be reduced. Generally, cities with high pollutant emissions should learn from other cities to reduce emissions, and cities with low GRP need to increase local economic development.