Capturing long-memory properties in road fatality rate series by an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity: A case study of Florida, the United States, 1975–2018
Journal of Safety Research(2022)
摘要
•Identify the long-memory property in the crash fatality rate time serie.•Propose an ARFIMA-GARCH model for the long memory property in crash risk analysis.•Reveal factors influencing crash fatality risks and the long-memory property.•The findings benefit the road safety analysis at marco level.
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关键词
Time series,Autoregressive,Moving average,Conditional heteroscedasticity,Long-memory dependencies,Road traffic fatality,Fractional theory
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