Simulating the potential effects of elevated CO2 concentration and temperature coupled with storm intensification on crop yield, surface runoff, and soil loss based on 25 GCMs ensemble: A site-specific case study in Oklahoma

Proper simulation of storm intensification is critical in projecting crop yield, surface runoff, and soil loss under climate change conditions. We developed a total of 100 climate scenarios coupled with storm intensification, which were based on 25 downscaled GCMs (General Circulation Model) projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) for two time periods of 2021-2050 and 2051-2080. The climate files were applied to a modified WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) model to estimate crop yield, runoff, and soil loss under 29 combinations of cropping and tillage systems. The results showed that future extreme storm events in the study area would significantly increase during 2021-2080 (P < 0.01). However, average monthly precipitation in summer would decrease by 12.5% in June and 10.8% in July, along with an annual precipitation decline of 2.6%, leading to a decrease in crop yield in this rainfed agricultural region. The amount of runoff (soil loss) from extreme storms would account for 45.9 (64.3%) of the total annual runoff (soil loss) when averaged across two time periods and two RCPs. The average annual runoff depth (soil loss amount) from crop rotation or double cropping systems would be 27.6 (78.1%) less than the corresponding values in a continuous monoculture cropping system. No-till and crop rotations with alfalfa are the best agricultural management alternatives to mitigate soil erosion rates under future climate change. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) indicated that the uncertainty contributions of GCMs and cropping and tillage systems reached 45.5% and 30.4% in annual surface runoff prediction (P < 0.001), while cropping and tillage systems (71.7%, P < 0.001) was the major uncertainty source in annual soil loss simulations. This study improved the prediction of crop yield, runoff, and soil loss from various cropping and tillage systems under climate change conditions by integrating storm intensification from multiple GCM ensembles.