Avoiding the Great Filter: Predicting the Timeline for Humanity to Reach Kardashev Type I Civilization

The level of technological development of any civilization can be gauged in large part by the amount of energy it produces for its use, but also encompasses that civilization's stewardship of its home world. Following the Kardashev definition, a Type I civilization is able to store and use all the energy available on its planet. In this study, we develop a model based on Carl Sagan's K formula, and use this model to analyze the consumption and energy supply of the three most important energy sources: fossil fuels (e.g., coal, oil, natural gas, crude, NGL, and feedstocks), nuclear energy, and renewable energy. We also consider environmental limitations suggested by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the International Energy Agency, and those specific to our calculations, to predict when humanity will reach the level of a Kardashev Scale Type I civilization. Our findings suggest that the best estimate for our civilization to attain Type I status is within the common calendar year range of 2333 to 2404.