China’s agricultural non-point source pollution and green growth: interaction and spatial spillover

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2019, a spatial simultaneous equation model is used to study the two-way interaction and spatial spillover between non-point source pollution and agricultural green development. The results show that (1) non-point source pollution is the most significant hindering factor for agricultural green development, agricultural green development can reduce non-point source pollution, and non-point source pollution and agricultural green development have significant spatial spillover effects respectively. (2) Yield development target is an important internal factor influencing the relationship between agricultural green development transition and non-point source pollution. Environmental regulation and agricultural R&D stock promote agricultural green development but also aggravate non-point source pollution. Production scale cannot promote agricultural green development but can help reduce non-point source pollution. (3) Urbanization and agricultural trade dependence both promote the green development of agriculture, while farmers' income and agricultural machinery strength increase and reduce non-point source pollution respectively. To promote the agricultural non-point source pollution treatment and green development, we should strengthen the protection of agricultural resources and the monitoring of agricultural environment and change the production relations of small farmers.