Chloroquine and COVID-19-A systems biology model uncovers the drug's detrimental effect on autophagy and explains its failure

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in an urgent need for identifying potential therapeutic drugs. In the first half of 2020 tropic antimalarial drugs, such as chloroquine (CQ) or hydroxochloroquine (HCQ) were the focus of tremendous public attention. In the initial periods of the pandemic, many scientific results pointed out that CQ/HCQ could be very effective for patients with severe COVID. While CQ and HCQ have successfully been used against several diseases (such as malaria, autoimmune disease and rheumatic illnesses); long term use of these agents are associated with serious adverse effects (i.e. inducing acute kidney injury, among many others) due to their role in blocking autophagy-dependent self-degradation. Recent experimental and clinical trial data also confirmed that there is no sufficient evidence about the efficient usage of CQ/HCQ against COVID-19. By using systems biology techniques, here we show that the cellular effect of CQ/HCQ on autophagy during endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress or following SARS-CoV-2 infection results in upregulation of ER stress. By presenting a simple mathematical model, we claim that although CQ/HCQ might be able to ameliorate virus infection, the permanent inhibition of autophagy by CQ/HCQ has serious negative effects on the cell. Since CQ/HCQ promotes apoptotic cell death, here we confirm that addition of CQ/HCQ cannot be really effective even in severe cases. Only a transient treatment seemed to be able to avoid apoptotic cell death, but this type of therapy could not limit virus replication in the infected host. The presented theoretical analysis clearly points out the utility and applicability of systems biology modelling to test the cellular effect of a drug targeting key major processes, such as autophagy and apoptosis. Applying these approaches could decrease the cost of pre-clinical studies and facilitate the selection of promising clinical trials in a timely fashion.