Prospective study of disease persistence and lung function trajectories of childhood asthma

Background A proportion of asthmatic children outgrow their disease by adulthood, but there are limited data on predictors for asthma persistence. This prospective study characterized the trajectory of spirometric indices and identified predictors for the persistence of childhood asthma. Methods Chinese asthmatic children aged 6-15 years from pediatric allergy clinic underwent annual visits for >= 5 years and until their adulthood. Pre-bronchodilator spirometry and anti-asthma medications were recorded at baseline and then at least annually. Asthma resolution was defined when patients were free from asthma symptoms and use of anti-asthma drugs for >= 2 years. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors for asthma persistence. Generalized estimating equation was used to analyze longitudinal changes in lung function parameters in relation to asthma persistence. Results 181 asthmatic children aged [mean (SD)] 10.0 (2.7) years were followed for [mean (SD)] 12.5 (2.8) years. One third of them outgrew asthma during follow-up. Female was 3.36 times more likely to have persistent asthma. Inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) treatment ever and frequent asthma exacerbation (AE) predicted asthma persistence with respective odds ratios of 3.19 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-7.09) and 3.05 (95% CI 1.39-6.68). Persistent asthma was inversely associated with baseline forced expiratory volume in 1-second (FEV1%) with an odds ratio of 0.96 (95% CI 0.93-1.00). Throughout follow-up, patients with persistent asthma had generally lower forced expiratory indices than those with asthma resolution. Children with persistent asthma experienced poorer lung function growth. Conclusions Female, ICS ever, and frequent AE predicted persistent asthma. Patients with persistent asthma had lower forced expiratory indices and poorer lung function growth into adulthood.