Model-Based Meta-Analysis on the Efficacy of Biologics and Small Targeted Molecules for Crohn's Disease

Information on comparative drug efficacy is of great importance for drug development as well as clinical practice. Up to now, the relative efficacy of biologics and small targeted molecules for Crohn's disease (CD) remains unclear. The objective of this study was to quantify the relative efficacy of investigational and approved biological treatments for CD measured in Crohn's Disease Activity Index (CDAI), Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire (IBDQ), and C-reactive protein (CRP). The analysis dataset was composed of summary-level data from 46 trials, containing 12,846 patients, with treatment of 24 drugs. Six mathematical models with non-parametric placebo estimations were developed to describe the time course and dose-response of six efficacy measures. The effects of covariate were further evaluated. Time-response relationships were found in outcomes measured in CDAI. The patients' age, disease duration, baseline CDAI, and CRP showed an impact on the efficacy. Model simulations were performed to compare the efficacies across different drugs. The most achievement in clinical remission (defined as CDAI less than 150) and clinical response (defined as the reduction in CDAI for 100 or 70) was observed in the simulation for PF-04236921 and infliximab, respectively. The most improvement in IBDQ was shown in tofacitinib. In general, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha inhibitors were the most effective biologics, and the highest efficacy of small targeted molecules was observed in janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors. These findings have important implications for clinical practice in CD.