Unraveling uncertainty drivers of the maize yield response to nitrogen: A Bayesian and machine learning approach

•The uncertainties in the yield response to N can be exploited to improve prediction.•The uncertainties in the yield response to N were largely governed by weather factors.•Soil factors consistently but narrowly (<23%) explained variation of yield response to N.•The economic optimum N rate (EONR) was the most difficult component to predict.•The EONR-uncertainty averaged 50 kg ha−1 increasing at low and high expected values.