Interpreting the COVID effect on atmospheric constituents over the Indian region during the lockdown: chemistry, meteorology, and seasonality

Most of the published articles which document changes in atmospheric compositions during the various lockdown and unlock phases of COVID-19 pandemic have made a direct comparison to a reference point (which may be 1 year apart) for attribution of the COVID-mediated lockdown impact on atmospheric composition. In the present study, we offer a better attribution of the lockdown impacts by also considering the effect of meteorology and seasonality. We decrease the temporal distance between the impacted and reference points by considering the difference of adjacent periods first and then comparing the impacted point to the mean of several reference points in the previous years. Additionally, we conduct a multi-station analysis to get a holistic effect of the different climatic and emission regimes. In several places in eastern and coastal India, the seasonally induced changes already pointed to a decrease in PM concentrations based on the previous year data; hence, the actual decrease due to lockdown would be much less than that observed just on the basis of difference of concentrations between subsequent periods. In contrast, northern Indian stations would normally show an increase in PM concentration at the time of the year when lockdown was effected; hence, actual lockdown-induced change would be in surplus of the observed change. The impact of wind-borne transport of pollutants to the study sites dominates over the dilution effects. Box model simulations point to a VOC-sensitive composition.