Non-parametric trend and the validity of a newly developed drought indicator for agricultural application over the central India region

This study aims to examine the accuracy of the newly developed agricultural standardized precipitation index (aSPI) representing agricultural drought over the drought-prone Bundelkhand region in central India. The results of this research are important for policymakers to formulate effective climate policies over the central India region. Three important drought indicators, standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and aSPI, have been chosen to find the drought events for three time decades from 1982 to 2013. SPEI has been evaluated from the observed data and archived from the global SPEI database of the State Agency for Scientific Research (CSIC) of Spain. The results revealed that aSPI performed better than the SPEI to evaluate the agricultural drought. SPEI also overestimates the drought events along with less severity levels (− 0.01 to − 0.15). Collective use of aSPI, SPI, and SPEI is also recommended for central India. The non-parametric trend of aSPI is also found using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator. The increasing trend of monthly drought is found for January, August, and September, over the upper Bundelkhand region. Some increasing trend of future drought is also found on the annual scale with Sen’s slope ranging from − 0.009/year to − 0.01/year and monsoon scale with Sen’s slope ranging from − 0.01/year to − 0.02/year over the upper Bundelkhand part. The result also concluded that the possibility of future drought is more in the upper Bundelkhand. The outcomes of this study could be utilized to find the real-time drought conditions and help to prepare mitigation strategies.