Greenhouse gas life cycle analysis of China's fuel cell medium- and heavy-duty trucks under segmented usage scenarios and vehicle types

A unified and complete China life cycle model is established considering differences in various test conditions to provide a data check and harmonizing method for fuel economy for medium-and heavy-duty truck(MHDT), taking into account the differences in MHDTs weight classes, usage scenarios and power systems. Different penetration scenarios for alternative fuels are established to predict changes in MHDT fleets. The results show that hydrogen sources substantially impact the emission reduction potential of MHDTs. Renewable electrolysis and by-product hydrogen can reduce GHG emissions by 29.0–52.4%. Other hydrogen pathways, which rely on hydrogen transportation and storage technologies, will present the opportunity for emission reduction only after the grid becomes low-carbon. In terms of vehicle models, the battery mass of battery-electric MHDT accounts for over 15% of their curb weight, weakening their emission reduction benefit. By contrast, fuel cell Class 8 trucks may maximize emission reductions because of its lower mass of equipment. Under different scenarios, the MHDT fleet is expected to cut emissions by 12.1–69.9% by 2050. However, overly aggressive adoption of hydrogen could lead to an increase in emissions from 2020 to 2040. Thus, comprehensive consideration of the large-scale promotion of FC-MHDTs combined with China's energy transition and technological development is suggested.