The Coercive Logic of Militant Drone Use

While unmanned aerial systems can serve as a force multiplier for militants, these systems do not embody a transformation in modern insurgent warfare or enable militants to engage regularly in strategic coercion. Instead, drone use is consistent with a militant group’s relative capabilities and broader strategic objectives. Consequently, these groups are likely to employ drones primarily for theater and tactical military purposes. D rones provide militants with affordable and novel means of bringing force to bear against opponents as the cost and complexity of this technology decreases and range, lethality, and swarming ability increases. A simple cost-benefit analysis suggests many militant groups should be attracted to making drones a central part of their armory. This framework, however, overlooks important strategic and political considerations, the sum of which strongly suggest most militant groups have determined drone-based airpower does not enable them to engage successfully in strategic coercion in civil war. Instead, drones serve as tactical adjuncts to the existing military strategies of militant groups and are used primarily to support ground operations and to interfere with the military operations of opponents.